Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062025 250824 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.10 61.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.00 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 13.6 19.5 24.9 23.6 18.4 13.7 27.3 F F N N N F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 40.0 33.0 19.0 16.0 17.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 122.3 117.9 111.5 105.5 98.0 89.3 54.7 15.6 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 -46.0 -47.0 -13.0 27.0 15.0 37.0 25.0 U VU VU U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 43.0 43.0 46.0 53.0 58.0 48.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 17.0 8.0 17.0 17.0 24.0 13.0 10.0 U U U U U VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.6% 2.0% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 6.6% 3.6% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 2.7% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 2.1% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.9% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 5.9% 3.1% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 1.8% 1.1% 55kt / 48h 6.6% 1.1% 3.8% 70kt / 48h 1.8% 0.8% 1.3% 65kt / 72h 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.84 AL062025 250824 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.10 61.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 13.6 19.5 24.9 23.6 18.4 13.7 27.3 N U N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 43.0 43.0 46.0 53.0 58.0 48.0 41.0 VF VF VF VF F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 17.0 8.0 17.0 17.0 24.0 13.0 10.0 F F F F F VF F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%