Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062025 250824 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.40 60.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 24.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 20.3 25.5 26.9 22.8 16.2 18.8 43.4 F N N N N F N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 17.0 15.0 18.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 117.9 111.5 105.5 101.6 91.0 83.0 34.0 10.1 N N N N N N VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -79.0 -51.0 -25.0 -33.0 40.0 11.0 88.0 -11.0 VU VU VU VU N U F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 41.0 43.0 46.0 53.0 54.0 44.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 21.0 11.0 21.0 22.0 21.0 33.0 11.0 8.0 VU U VU VU VU VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 3.7% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 4.1% 2.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 4.5% 0.6% 2.5% 70kt / 48h 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.60 AL062025 250824 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.40 60.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 20.3 25.5 26.9 22.8 16.2 18.8 43.4 U N N N N U N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 41.0 43.0 46.0 53.0 54.0 44.0 38.0 VF VF VF VF F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 21.0 11.0 21.0 22.0 21.0 33.0 11.0 8.0 VF F VF VF VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%