Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062025 250824 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.30 60.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.7 23.1 25.9 24.0 21.4 14.6 21.2 29.9 F N N N N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 15.0 19.0 20.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 106.5 100.5 96.6 91.2 84.3 64.2 17.7 18.1 N N N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -17.0 -25.0 -39.0 32.0 0.0 61.0 -17.0 14.0 U VU VU N U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 44.0 46.0 50.0 55.0 53.0 50.0 45.0 VU VU VU U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 19.0 24.0 21.0 22.0 21.0 24.0 -13.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.5% 2.9% 2.2% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 6.6% 3.8% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 3.2% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 2.6% 1.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 8.4% 4.4% 55kt / 36h 0.5% 3.2% 1.8% 55kt / 48h 9.0% 3.0% 6.0% 70kt / 48h 3.0% 1.1% 2.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 AL062025 250824 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.30 60.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.