Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062025 250825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10     59.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  24.8  25.2  22.8  23.1  17.9  23.9  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  22.0  20.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5  95.5  91.6  82.7  77.7  38.3  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -42.0  12.0  31.0  14.0  93.0   8.0   8.0  U VU  U  N  U  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  52.0  54.0  57.0  52.0  43.0  43.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  19.0  15.0  17.0  26.0  15.0  23.0  23.0  U VU  U  U VU  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        2.2%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        4.9%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        1.7%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        9.3%        0.4%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 AL062025 250825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10     59.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.