Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062025 250825 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.20 59.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.6 25.1 25.8 24.9 19.2 17.9 30.4 30.4 N N N N N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 21.0 19.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.6 86.2 82.7 79.3 56.7 12.7 2.0 2.0 N N N N U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -28.0 21.0 11.0 13.0 72.0 -17.0 18.0 18.0 VU U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 50.0 51.0 54.0 54.0 44.0 39.0 39.0 VU U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 16.0 16.0 24.0 16.0 27.0 -28.0 -28.0 VU U U VU U VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.5% 1.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 6.6% 0.1% 3.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.84 AL062025 250825 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.20 59.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.