Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062025 250825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.90     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  27.3  28.0  25.5  19.0  26.8  26.8  26.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  19.0  14.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.2  82.7  79.3  77.7  38.3   2.7   2.7   2.7  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   5.0   7.0  29.0  97.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  N  F  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  51.0  52.0  54.0  50.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  18.0  21.0  26.0  13.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.68

 AL062025 250825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.90     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.