Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062025 250825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80     57.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  26.6  25.9  20.8  18.1  23.7  23.7  23.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  17.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.2  74.3  72.7  66.5  16.7  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   2.0  18.0  61.0  25.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  49.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  20.0  24.0  14.0  29.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0 VU VU VU  U VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.50

 AL062025 250825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80     57.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.