Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062025 250826 00UTC Storm Located at : 35.60 56.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 25.2 22.7 17.3 13.8 17.6 17.6 17.6 N N N F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 10.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.3 77.7 74.6 68.6 35.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 N N U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 15.0 62.0 55.0 18.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 U U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 52.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 23.0 11.0 7.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U VU U N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.24 AL062025 250826 00UTC Storm Located at : 35.60 56.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.