Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062025 250826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.50     55.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  22.1  15.5  11.5  22.1  22.1  22.1  22.1  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   7.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.7  79.6  73.6  57.0  29.6  29.6  29.6  29.6  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  61.0  46.0  30.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  14.0   9.0  17.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.78

 AL062025 250826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.50     55.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.