Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062025 250827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.90     48.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  15.9  15.4  18.8  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.2  54.3  41.8  31.9  19.6  19.6  19.6  19.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  24.0 -19.0  12.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  43.0  43.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  30.0  39.0  30.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.20

 AL062025 250827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.90     48.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.