Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062025 250828 06UTC Storm Located at : 40.60 44.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.3 18.5 21.9 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 46.8 36.9 30.2 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 17.0 39.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 U U N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 42.0 42.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 42.0 32.0 47.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VU VU VU N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.32 AL062025 250828 06UTC Storm Located at : 40.60 44.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.