Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     45.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  22.0  23.9  22.0  20.7  22.7  19.8  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  38.0  26.0  19.0  22.0  28.0  51.0  70.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        122.9 120.7 120.7 120.7 125.1 129.6 132.0 135.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  63.0  63.0  47.0  41.0  44.0   2.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  56.0  50.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -1.0   5.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        7.3%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       10.5%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        3.0%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h       10.6%        3.9%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        2.9%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h       15.8%       12.2%       14.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 AL072025 250917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     45.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  22.0  23.9  22.0  20.7  22.7  19.8  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  56.0  50.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -1.0   5.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%