Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     46.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  30.4  28.5  29.9  24.2  27.9  22.1  21.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  25.0  21.0  24.0  34.0  57.0  57.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        116.5 118.6 120.7 122.9 129.6 132.0 134.3 135.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  81.0  53.0  18.0  38.0 -29.0   6.0  -8.0  N  N  N  U  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  58.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0  -1.0   4.0  -1.0  -9.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        0.7%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.3%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        9.5%        2.9%        6.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 AL072025 250917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     46.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  30.4  28.5  29.9  24.2  27.9  22.1  21.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  58.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0  -1.0   4.0  -1.0  -9.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%