Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00     47.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  28.6  29.4  24.8  28.4  21.6  20.4  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  21.0  24.0  27.0  46.0  60.0  51.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        103.6 105.7 107.9 110.1 117.0 119.3 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  77.0  43.0  38.0   5.0 -18.0   9.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  43.0  46.0  49.0  50.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   0.0   1.0   2.0 -10.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        1.0%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        5.8%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        1.7%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        1.6%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        1.6%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        6.0%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        1.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h       10.3%        2.0%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        1.1%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        9.7%        5.4%        7.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 AL072025 250917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00     47.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  28.6  29.4  24.8  28.4  21.6  20.4  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  43.0  46.0  49.0  50.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   0.0   1.0   2.0 -10.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%