Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     49.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  28.4  21.9  23.0  28.4  19.1  16.5  15.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  23.0  28.0  34.0  61.0  56.0  46.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.7 107.9 110.1 112.3 117.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  55.0  34.0  41.0   8.0 -18.0 -21.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  51.0  54.0  60.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   2.0  -2.0  -7.0  -8.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.6%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        4.8%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        4.3%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%        2.1%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        0.9%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%        4.9%        6.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 AL072025 250918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     49.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  28.4  21.9  23.0  28.4  19.1  16.5  15.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  51.0  54.0  60.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   2.0  -2.0  -7.0  -8.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%