Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     49.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  22.3  20.4  25.7  18.9  18.3  10.1  15.1  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  26.0  32.0  40.0  67.0  47.0  51.0  36.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 110.1 112.3 114.6 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  15.0  12.0 -10.0  -6.0  -8.0 -13.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -7.0  -5.0  -6.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        3.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        2.1%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        7.7%        5.1%        6.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 AL072025 250918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     49.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  22.3  20.4  25.7  18.9  18.3  10.1  15.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -7.0  -5.0  -6.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%