Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     51.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  22.2  24.2  23.5  16.6  14.6  14.8  13.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  33.0  46.0  61.0  53.0  47.0  42.0  35.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 117.3 122.0 124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -11.0 -16.0   1.0  12.0  -2.0  33.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  55.0  62.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0   4.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        4.1%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.2%        3.2%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        1.0%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h       16.3%        7.3%       11.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 AL072025 250918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     51.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  22.2  24.2  23.5  16.6  14.6  14.8  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  55.0  62.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%