Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     52.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  23.9  22.2  17.2  16.0  11.0  13.9  13.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  47.0  63.0  62.0  46.0  53.0  34.0  39.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 117.0 119.3 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -22.0   1.0  14.0  11.0  19.0  -4.0  45.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  49.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  63.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -7.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        8.4%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        3.2%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.9%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.9%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%        8.1%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        2.0%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h       16.0%        7.0%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        2.4%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h       18.4%       10.1%       14.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 AL072025 250918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     52.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  23.9  22.2  17.2  16.0  11.0  13.9  13.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  49.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  63.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -7.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%