Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     52.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  21.8  18.0  17.9  16.7  15.2  16.5  13.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  59.0  64.0  55.0  46.0  41.0  35.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 117.0 119.3 119.3 120.0 120.0 117.0 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  20.0  24.0   6.0   0.0  28.0   9.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  61.0  66.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -3.0  -7.0  -7.0   0.0  -1.0   7.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.8%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       14.3%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        6.7%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.9%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        5.9%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       13.0%        9.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%        4.2%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       15.0%       10.3%       12.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        4.0%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h       13.8%       12.6%       13.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 AL072025 250919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     52.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  21.8  18.0  17.9  16.7  15.2  16.5  13.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  61.0  66.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -3.0  -7.0  -7.0   0.0  -1.0   7.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%