Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     54.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  19.7  20.3  19.1  13.3  20.0  14.4  21.3  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  65.0  54.0  45.0  50.0  33.0  38.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 119.3 120.0 120.0 119.3 110.1 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0   1.0  14.0  17.0   6.0  36.0  56.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  59.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -8.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0  15.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        3.2%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        7.0%       20.7%       13.8%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%       10.7%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        9.8%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        9.4%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h        8.6%       20.1%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%        7.5%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h       14.5%       13.4%       14.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%        5.2%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h       14.9%       13.5%       14.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 AL072025 250919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     54.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  19.7  20.3  19.1  13.3  20.0  14.4  21.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  59.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -8.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0  15.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%