Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70     55.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  17.7  20.5  17.2  15.8  15.4  14.1  13.3  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  57.0  48.0  45.0  45.0  31.0  36.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 110.1  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  16.0   9.0 -33.0  49.0  12.0  95.0  51.0  U  U  U VU  N  U  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  64.0  66.0  72.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0   9.0  13.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.9%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       17.0%       11.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        7.9%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        7.4%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        7.4%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        8.1%       16.3%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%        5.3%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h       15.0%       11.8%       13.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        4.3%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h       19.0%       13.3%       16.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 AL072025 250919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70     55.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  17.7  20.5  17.2  15.8  15.4  14.1  13.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  64.0  66.0  72.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0   9.0  13.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%