Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     56.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  20.4  17.7  16.0  16.8  11.9  15.1  20.8  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  49.0  45.0  51.0  36.0  36.0  35.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 105.7  86.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0  -7.0 -24.0  -1.0  13.0  68.0  38.0  67.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  55.0  59.0  65.0  69.0  69.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  15.0  24.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.5%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%       25.8%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%       14.7%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       13.8%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       13.5%        8.0%
 45kt / 36h        9.3%       23.0%       16.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%        9.1%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h       15.6%       18.0%       16.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        7.3%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h       12.9%       12.3%       12.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 AL072025 250919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     56.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  20.4  17.7  16.0  16.8  11.9  15.1  20.8  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  55.0  59.0  65.0  69.0  69.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  15.0  24.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%