Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20     56.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  16.7  15.5  16.4  15.4  17.4  19.5  34.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  45.0  49.0  42.0  31.0  38.0  29.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6 110.1  91.6  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -12.0  15.0  15.0  18.0  55.0  31.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  65.0  72.0  69.0  59.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   6.0  21.0  28.0  F  N  N  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        4.9%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       10.4%       29.9%       20.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%       18.3%       12.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       17.7%       10.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       17.2%        9.8%
 45kt / 36h       10.3%       26.2%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.5%       11.4%        8.4%
 55kt / 48h       15.6%       17.2%       16.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%        7.6%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.2%        6.9%        6.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 AL072025 250920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20     56.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  16.7  15.5  16.4  15.4  17.4  19.5  34.6  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  65.0  72.0  69.0  59.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   6.0  21.0  28.0  U  N  N  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%