Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     57.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.5  17.9  18.5  15.9  25.2  23.2  41.3  F  F  F  N  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  49.0  41.0  33.0  38.0  33.0  17.0  20.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 110.1  97.4  84.4  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0  25.0  28.0  30.0  43.0  34.0  23.0  28.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  61.0  64.0  69.0  72.0  65.0  53.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   5.0   8.0  19.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.6%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.8%       26.3%       17.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%       14.7%       10.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       14.3%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       14.3%        8.3%
 45kt / 36h        9.0%       21.6%       15.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%        8.4%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h       12.2%        9.7%       10.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        4.2%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        3.0%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 AL072025 250920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     57.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.5  17.9  18.5  15.9  25.2  23.2  41.3  U  N  N  N  U  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  61.0  64.0  69.0  72.0  65.0  53.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   5.0   8.0  19.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%