Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072025 250920 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 58.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 16.9 15.5 14.7 17.3 17.3 31.7 34.7 N F F F F F U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 46.0 36.0 31.0 35.0 35.0 32.0 16.0 21.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 109.3 104.6 95.7 87.4 74.4 63.0 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 -20.0 10.0 46.0 47.0 35.0 23.0 49.0 U VU U N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 61.0 62.0 65.0 67.0 64.0 55.0 52.0 U N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0 17.0 25.0 18.0 N N N N U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 15.3% 14.4% 14.9% 25kt / 24h 28.0% 48.6% 38.3% 30kt / 24h 22.1% 41.8% 32.0% 35kt / 24h 20.4% 41.8% 31.1% 40kt / 24h 11.1% 41.8% 26.4% 45kt / 36h 22.7% 39.0% 30.8% 55kt / 36h 14.5% 21.5% 18.0% 55kt / 48h 17.8% 17.3% 17.6% 70kt / 48h 6.8% 9.1% 7.9% 65kt / 72h 1.6% 3.5% 2.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.42 AL072025 250920 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 58.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 16.9 15.5 14.7 17.3 17.3 31.7 34.7 N N U U N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 61.0 62.0 65.0 67.0 64.0 55.0 52.0 F N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0 17.0 25.0 18.0 N N N N F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%