Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90     59.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  19.5  18.3  19.0  20.6  26.9  24.9  41.6  N  N  F  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  30.0  34.0  38.0  36.0  21.0  22.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.3 107.0 104.6  97.9  91.5  79.8  69.3  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -8.0  31.0  44.0   3.0 -11.0  61.0  70.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  64.0  69.0  68.0  60.0  53.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   7.0   2.0  10.0  14.0  11.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.4%       11.9%       13.2%
 25kt / 24h       20.7%       37.4%       29.1%
 30kt / 24h       17.0%       28.1%       22.5%
 35kt / 24h       15.4%       28.1%       21.8%
 40kt / 24h        8.0%       28.1%       18.1%
 45kt / 36h       14.0%       25.0%       19.5%
 55kt / 36h        8.4%       11.0%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%        6.4%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        3.4%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 AL072025 250921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90     59.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  19.5  18.3  19.0  20.6  26.9  24.9  41.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  64.0  69.0  68.0  60.0  53.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   7.0   2.0  10.0  14.0  11.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%