Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.9  20.0  22.8  20.5  29.6  27.6  40.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  35.0  38.0  34.0  31.0  17.0  23.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 104.6  97.9  93.6  85.5  74.4  69.3  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  35.0  63.0  31.0  31.0  44.0  36.0   7.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  64.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  56.0  52.0  52.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   1.0   9.0  11.0  18.0  12.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        5.0%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%       18.9%       13.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%       11.3%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%       11.0%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       10.3%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       10.1%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        3.3%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        2.5%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        1.0%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 AL072025 250921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.9  20.0  22.8  20.5  29.6  27.6  40.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  64.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  56.0  52.0  52.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   1.0   9.0  11.0  18.0  12.0  25.0  N  N  N  F  F VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%