Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30     60.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  17.1  21.6  21.6  23.6  21.1  33.1  36.6  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  38.0  34.0  30.0  29.0  15.0  22.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.6 104.6  97.9  93.6  79.8  74.4  67.7  61.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  60.0  13.0  17.0   6.0  90.0  59.0  24.0  N  N  U  U  U  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  60.0  54.0  48.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0  10.0   8.0   8.0  14.0  16.0  14.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        4.8%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       17.9%       12.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%       10.7%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       10.2%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        9.7%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%        9.3%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        3.1%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        2.7%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.1%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 AL072025 250921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30     60.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  17.1  21.6  21.6  23.6  21.1  33.1  36.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  60.0  54.0  48.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0  10.0   8.0   8.0  14.0  16.0  14.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%