Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  20.7  20.8  18.6  26.9  18.4  32.9  32.5  F  N  N  N  N  F  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  33.0  31.0  28.0  21.0  20.0  14.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.6  87.9  83.6  75.5  69.8  59.3  53.0  50.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0   8.0  18.0  12.0  13.0  45.0  54.0  51.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  55.0  50.0  51.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  13.0  11.0  12.0  16.0  15.0  20.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.5%       12.5%       15.5%
 25kt / 24h       18.4%       26.9%       22.6%
 30kt / 24h       17.1%       20.7%       18.9%
 35kt / 24h       15.4%       20.7%       18.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.1%       20.7%       14.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.8%       11.4%        9.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%        4.3%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.3%        2.7%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 AL072025 250921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  20.7  20.8  18.6  26.9  18.4  32.9  32.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  55.0  50.0  51.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  13.0  11.0  12.0  16.0  15.0  20.0   8.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%