Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072025 250922 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.90 62.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 23.0 19.0 23.0 21.6 30.2 28.9 42.1 N N N N N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 29.0 28.0 28.0 16.0 21.0 7.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.9 83.6 75.5 75.5 62.7 56.1 50.0 41.7 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 20.0 36.0 5.0 58.0 68.0 44.0 50.0 U U N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 68.0 65.0 59.0 54.0 48.0 54.0 60.0 N N N U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 9.0 11.0 9.0 13.0 12.0 18.0 35.0 U U U U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 17.5% 10.2% 13.8% 25kt / 24h 14.4% 20.7% 17.6% 30kt / 24h 14.4% 14.2% 14.3% 35kt / 24h 14.4% 14.2% 14.3% 40kt / 24h 4.9% 14.2% 9.5% 45kt / 36h 6.2% 9.2% 7.7% 55kt / 36h 3.6% 3.3% 3.5% 55kt / 48h 7.9% 1.5% 4.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.68 AL072025 250922 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.90 62.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 23.0 19.0 23.0 21.6 30.2 28.9 42.1 N N N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 68.0 65.0 59.0 54.0 48.0 54.0 60.0 N N N F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 9.0 11.0 9.0 13.0 12.0 18.0 35.0 F F F F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%