Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.40     62.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  24.2  26.0  23.1  25.3  31.7  41.5  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  27.0  18.0  16.0  22.0   7.0   7.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.5  35.5  29.8  22.7  16.1  10.0   1.7  -8.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  18.0  45.0  50.0  36.0  33.0  51.0  45.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  57.0  55.0  49.0  42.0  45.0  49.0  59.0  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  10.0  12.0   9.0   4.0   2.0   6.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.6%        8.0%       18.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%        5.9%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.18

 AL072025 250922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.40     62.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.