Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.30     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  25.6  22.5  20.4  29.1  36.0  48.9  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  18.0  16.0  22.0  14.0  17.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         19.8  19.8  12.7   7.7   1.5  -5.6  -9.6 -27.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  37.0  43.0  48.0   3.0  34.0  25.0  50.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  50.0  47.0  43.0  41.0  44.0  53.0  56.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  12.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  -7.0  21.0 -37.0  U  U  U  U  U  F VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.86

 AL072025 250922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.30     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.