Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10     61.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  21.4  17.6  24.7  33.7  41.1  45.7  65.4  N  N  F  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  16.0  22.0  22.0   8.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         13.0   7.7   2.7   1.1  -5.0 -14.6 -20.7 -38.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  50.0  46.0  61.0  33.0  18.0  61.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  48.0  44.0  41.0  45.0  50.0  58.0  52.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  15.0  12.0   7.0  22.0  15.0  19.0 -17.0  U  U  U  N VU  U VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.58

 AL072025 250923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10     61.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.