Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.80     60.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  19.4  26.5  31.8  32.9  42.0  53.8  68.3  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  21.0  22.0  13.0  21.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          7.7   2.7   1.1  -3.5  -7.8 -15.8 -29.3 -43.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  52.0  46.0  22.0  17.0  32.0  51.0  42.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  44.0  41.0  43.0  47.0  56.0  55.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  12.0  11.0  13.0  13.0  41.0 -25.0 -30.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.38

 AL072025 250923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.80     60.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.