Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072025 250923 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 59.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 25.9 33.5 34.8 43.8 45.6 64.9 71.2 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 22.0 13.0 9.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 7.7 1.1 1.1 -5.0 -10.6 -20.7 -37.6 -47.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 31.0 54.0 33.0 16.0 49.0 45.0 25.0 57.0 N N N U N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 40.0 43.0 45.0 51.0 58.0 49.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 10.0 22.0 21.0 22.0 0.0 -29.0 -17.0 U U VU VU VU N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.28 AL072025 250923 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 59.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120.