Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30     57.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  38.3  37.0  39.2  47.0  55.4  65.4  64.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  13.0   7.0  15.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          6.1   1.5  -1.4  -4.2 -12.1 -28.2 -39.6 -46.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  28.0  21.0   4.0  25.0  66.0  50.0  63.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  42.0  45.0  48.0  57.0  53.0  44.0  46.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  19.0  22.0   9.0  32.0 -50.0 -51.0 -30.0  U VU VU  U VU VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.92

 AL072025 250923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30     57.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.