Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072025 250924 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.90 55.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.0 35.6 38.4 45.3 45.5 62.2 70.1 59.4 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 8.0 17.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 5.0 3.6 2.2 -5.8 -10.7 -27.6 -37.9 -42.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 36.0 36.0 18.0 21.0 44.0 22.0 114.0 28.0 N N U U N U F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 49.0 50.0 56.0 55.0 45.0 45.0 44.0 VU U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 26.0 23.0 14.0 22.0 -3.0 -30.0 -15.0 -28.0 VU VU U VU N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.64 AL072025 250924 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.90 55.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110.