Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.40     52.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.0  39.3  47.8  45.7  57.3  64.3  66.0  50.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  14.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         12.2   6.7   4.2   1.7  -9.3 -24.6 -32.2 -36.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0   6.0  34.0  21.0  36.0  66.0  67.0  25.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  55.0  57.0  50.0  44.0  46.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  14.0  22.0  30.0 -31.0 -20.0 -29.0 -40.0  U  U VU VU VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.28

 AL072025 250924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.40     52.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.