Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072025 250924 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.80 50.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 85.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.8 46.7 48.5 48.7 63.5 72.6 63.9 53.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 18.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 13.0 10.4 7.9 -1.2 -12.6 -22.9 -28.8 -29.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 49.0 26.0 67.0 26.0 50.0 -10.0 35.0 U N U N U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 54.0 56.0 54.0 47.0 42.0 41.0 34.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 16.0 32.0 0.0 -4.0 -23.0 -30.0 -41.0 U U VU N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.02 AL072025 250924 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.80 50.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.