Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072025 250924 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.10 46.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.6 41.7 41.8 52.2 61.2 69.5 64.3 59.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 14.2 11.7 2.7 -0.3 -14.6 -19.2 -23.8 -23.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 44.0 37.0 40.0 33.0 48.0 -20.0 -5.0 U N N N N N VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 53.0 50.0 45.0 42.0 42.0 35.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 17.0 -6.0 -12.0 -20.0 -28.0 -37.0 -27.0 VU U F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.54 AL072025 250924 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.10 46.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.