Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072025 250925 00UTC Storm Located at : 35.90 44.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.1 42.2 48.2 56.2 66.3 67.0 58.2 52.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 26.7 23.2 14.7 5.8 -0.3 -5.4 -8.8 -9.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 54.0 39.0 13.0 24.0 -10.0 -33.0 -39.0 N N N U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 50.0 46.0 42.0 41.0 40.0 36.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 22.0 1.0 -17.0 -20.0 -15.0 -36.0 -27.0 -35.0 VU N VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.20 AL072025 250925 00UTC Storm Located at : 35.90 44.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.