Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.20     40.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.9  48.5  56.6  60.8  63.9  56.9  52.4  45.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         23.2  13.7   5.8   3.4  -4.8  -7.7 -12.3 -13.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  45.0  74.0   8.0  56.0   2.0 -20.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  42.0  42.0  41.0  37.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -11.0 -11.0 -25.0 -22.0 -31.0 -27.0 -29.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.60

 AL072025 250925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.20     40.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.