Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072025 250925 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.40 36.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.7 53.2 57.9 60.4 61.9 52.1 43.3 35.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 23.7 20.0 13.4 9.1 3.4 1.2 0.1 2.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 36.0 39.0 15.0 40.0 23.0 27.0 9.0 -11.0 N N U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 44.0 41.0 40.0 42.0 38.0 36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -13.0 -21.0 -16.0 -19.0 -17.0 -24.0 -17.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.08 AL072025 250925 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.40 36.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.