Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072025 250925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.70     33.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.4  55.0  60.6  63.0  57.1  51.1  45.4  31.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  18.4  16.9  12.7   7.3   7.8   4.6  12.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  25.0  52.0  76.0  12.0  -3.0  34.0   6.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  42.0  40.0  36.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -24.0  -8.0 -21.0 -29.0 -21.0 -22.0 -16.0  F VF  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.68

 AL072025 250925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.70     33.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.