Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072025 250926 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.70 27.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.20 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 61.3 67.1 67.7 59.4 46.9 33.4 22.5 23.2 VU VU VU VU VU U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 18.4 14.6 14.0 11.7 10.1 9.6 15.2 17.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 58.0 66.0 19.0 21.0 -3.0 51.0 10.0 -30.0 N N U U U N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 42.0 41.0 38.0 34.0 37.0 40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -15.0 -13.0 -31.0 -30.0 -27.0 -10.0 -2.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.34 AL072025 250926 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.70 27.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.