Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     54.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  18.8  15.2  16.2  18.4  12.8  18.1  13.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  58.0  62.0  63.0  60.0  56.0  48.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.0 129.3 127.0 129.3 129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  -6.0   9.0  60.0   3.0  -1.0  23.0  48.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  56.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.7%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       29.9%       20.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%       15.1%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       14.6%        8.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       14.6%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.6%       37.1%       24.8%
 55kt / 36h        8.4%       17.9%       13.1%
 55kt / 48h       34.3%       23.1%       28.7%
 70kt / 48h       17.7%       15.7%       16.7%
 65kt / 72h       35.4%       37.4%       36.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 AL082025 250924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     54.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  18.8  15.2  16.2  18.4  12.8  18.1  13.3  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  56.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%