Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     55.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  20.4  18.2  24.9  22.1  21.4  20.4  26.6  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  48.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.0 127.0 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   2.0  43.0  37.0  -1.0   8.0  25.0 -20.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.5%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       26.1%       17.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%       12.4%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%       11.4%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       10.8%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        8.1%       28.7%       18.4%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       11.9%        8.4%
 55kt / 48h       21.8%       15.2%       18.5%
 70kt / 48h        8.7%        9.4%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h       21.2%       22.6%       21.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 AL082025 250925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     55.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  20.4  18.2  24.9  22.1  21.4  20.4  26.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%