Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     56.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  19.5  25.4  25.5  16.3  27.6  23.9  29.7  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  49.0  53.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        122.0 124.3 124.3 124.3 124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  45.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  -5.0  18.0  -6.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        5.4%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       10.4%       26.1%       18.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       13.1%        9.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       12.2%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       12.0%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%       28.9%       19.9%
 55kt / 36h        6.8%       12.5%        9.6%
 55kt / 48h       20.8%       14.0%       17.4%
 70kt / 48h        8.0%        7.3%        7.6%
 65kt / 72h       15.3%       14.9%       15.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 AL082025 250925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     56.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  19.5  25.4  25.5  16.3  27.6  23.9  29.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%