Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30     56.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  24.3  26.2  24.4  22.4  19.6  25.1  26.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  54.0  48.0  50.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        122.0 124.3 124.3 124.3 124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  11.0 -12.0   3.0   9.0   0.0 -14.0 -16.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        3.4%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       19.8%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        9.8%        6.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        8.8%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        7.8%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       19.0%       12.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        6.9%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h       15.4%       11.2%       13.3%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        4.8%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h       14.8%       12.5%       13.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 AL082025 250925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30     56.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  24.3  26.2  24.4  22.4  19.6  25.1  26.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%