Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     56.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  29.7  26.3  20.5  20.0  22.2  26.8  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        114.3 114.3 114.3 114.3 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  -5.0  -8.0  15.0   5.0  30.0 -14.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.1%        8.0%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       19.3%       34.1%       26.7%
 30kt / 24h       14.3%       21.8%       18.1%
 35kt / 24h       10.8%       21.8%       16.3%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%       21.3%       13.9%
 45kt / 36h       14.8%       30.6%       22.7%
 55kt / 36h        8.9%       14.6%       11.8%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       16.6%       17.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        8.3%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h        9.0%       12.7%       10.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 AL082025 250925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     56.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  29.7  26.3  20.5  20.0  22.2  26.8  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%